If you felt like Q1 was an economic fever dream, you’re not alone. The first three months of 2025 gave us a cocktail of policy plot twists, market mood swings, and enough tariff talk to make even seasoned investors reach for a stress ball.

But before we spiral — let’s talk through what really happened, and why this isn’t 2008 all over again (promise).

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Plot Twist: It’s Not a Systemic Crisis

Let’s be clear. This isn’t the dot-com bust, and it’s definitely not the Global Financial Crisis. In both of those, something was fundamentally broken — companies with no revenue, banks with no reserves, and housing markets made of dreams and duct tape.

What we’re seeing now is more like the COVID crash: markets reacting (loudly) to political and external noise, not broken business models. The underlying players? Stronger than ever. It’s a confidence issue, not a crisis.

South Africa: Coalition Complications & VAT Chat

On home turf, things got spicy. The ANC pushed through a VAT hike to plug a R60bn hole in the budget. The DA? Not happy. They challenged it in court, stormed out of the coalition Zoom call, and declared the partnership on pause.

The rand dipped (thanks, political drama), and bond yields got twitchy. But Moody’s (yes, the ratings people) still believe we’ll see a compromise. Meanwhile, real reforms in energy and infrastructure keep chugging along — quietly promising a better second act.

Quarter in Review: What Moved, What Didn’t

• U.S. Stocks: S&P 500 down -4.8%, Nasdaq off -6.5%. Big tech had a “not so magnificent” quarter.
• Europe: Quietly crushed it. Thanks to energy, defense, and some corporate muscle.
• Gold: Hit a record $3,124/oz — it’s the Beyoncé of safe-haven assets.
• Bitcoin: Dropped 14%. Digital gold? Not this time.
• Bonds: U.S. aggregate bonds up 2.75% — the portfolio equivalent of herbal tea.
• Oil: Brent dropped below $60 — tariffs put a damper on demand.

Q1 MVPs: Gold, European equities, luxury stuff (Swiss watches and whisky, anyone?)

Q1 Flops: U.S. tech, crypto, oil.

So… What Now?

• Global PMIs are up (a good sign), and the market’s now betting on rate cuts — maybe five — before year-end. The
• VIX (volatility’s panic meter) hit 45, which is basically yelling “Do something!”

But here’s our take: Don’t. Not out of fear, anyway.

Panic-selling might feel good at the moment, but it locks in losses and misses the recovery. And we’ve seen this play out before — rebounds come fast, and they favour the calm.

Final Word: Keep Your Cool

This quarter was loud. But the fundamentals are whispering a different story. If you’ve got a long-term lens, now might be the time to lean in — or at least hold tight. We’re staying invested, staying curious, and staying caffeinated. 

More to come in April. Hang in there.

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Sources: Reuters, Financial Times, Moody’s, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Investing.com, The Times, BeInCrypto, AP News.